EvaluatePharma: World Preview 2016/Outlook 2022 (I)

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 • Novartis and Roche to compete head to head for the crown of worldwide prescription sales in 2022. Pfizer to challenge them following Medivation acquisition. 
• Celgene (+16%) and Shire (+19%) expected to record the fastest sales growth (CAGR) by 2022. 
• Biologics to contribute 50% of the Top 100 product sales by 2022; Roche leads market. 
• Roche has the highest valued pipeline (NPV) at $43bn in 2022. 
• Gilead is the top value creator based on 2015 sales from recently launched products. 
• Tecfidera best commercial launch after hepatitis C’s success stories Harvoni and Sovaldi. 
• Roche’s ocrevus and Sanofi’s dupilumab projected to be the most valuable R&D projects. 
• Worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend expected to grow by 2.8% (CAGR) to $182bn in 2022. 
• Roche overtakes Novartis with biggest spend on pharmacuetical R&D in 2022. 
• New drug approvals in 2015 reach a record 56 NMEs. 
• Oncology is still the largest therapy area by sales (+12.5% CAGR) 2016-22. 
• Roche remains the leader of the oncology field but its growth is set to fade due to biosimilars. 
• Abbvie still dominates anti-rheumatics market in 2022; high expectations on Lilly’s baricitinib. 
• GlaxoSmithKline gains vaccines market leadership following oncology portfolio deal swap with Novartis. 
• Pfizer’s pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar-13 remains the top selling vaccines product. 
• Gilead’s lead continues in anti-viral market in 2022 largely due to its HIV portfolio. 
• Opdivo and Revlimid to compete for the top selling products in the world in 2022. 
• Roche products make up 10% of top 50 selling products in the world in 2022. 
• AbbVie’s Humira will continue to be the leading product in the USA in 2022, with sales of $10.7bn. 
• Xarelto to emerge as the top selling brand in Europe with €2.5bn sales in 2022.